Wednesday, October 29, 2008

Is Blu-ray Already Dead?

Several tech writers seem to believe that Sony’s Blu-ray disc technology and high definition movie recordings are on their way out before they got much of a foothold in the market. Although Sony had predicted a 50% market share by this year, their sales presently account for only about 5% of video discs sold. With up-converting DVD players selling at a much lower price and only a minimal difference in high definition quality, there is little incentive for the consumer to pay big bucks for a Blu-ray player or over $25.00 for a Blu-ray movie disc. The conclusion appears to be that “if Hollywood expects to be selling DVDs in five years, they need to make Blu-ray an affordable standard.” There is even some speculation that movies will no longer be recorded on discs, but on flash drives.

Rather than chance making nonsensical blunders or embarrassing myself with misinterpreted statistics, I will refer the reader to some very recent original articles and the discussions that go with them:

Blu-ray ix-nay?

Blu-ray is dead – heckuva job, Sony!

Pioneer ups Blu-ray discs to 16 layers, 400GB capacity.

SlySoft cracks Blu-ray BD+ encryption.

Techreport.com forum discussion.

Many people like Blu-ray and it is certainly their prerogative to purchase and use whatever equipment pleases them. I freely admit to a strong bias against Sony since two undisclosed rootkit implants on their DVDs seriously damaged the computers of people who even attempted to make an archival copy or record the DVD to their hard drive. This potential development only serves to reinforce my decision never to buy another Sony product (regardless of how good they are and how much I might want them.)

Peace, Doc

Copyright © 2008, Thomas A. Blood, Ph.D.

“There’s a sucker born every minute.” – Usually erroneously attributed to P. T. Barnum but much likelier stated by Mr. George Hull, a hoaxer and Barnum’s competitor.

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4 Comments:

Blogger marcia said...

I wouldn't be surprised to see Blu-Ray go the way of certain earlier technology dear husband bought. We had Betamax and Phillips' early AV disc product (can't remember what it was called), especially if they haven't captured projected market share.

You're probably right that all DVDs will be preempted by newer technology, just as vinyl records were displaced by CDs and audio CDs are being replaced by ipods and other MP3 players.

But I disagree with the your assessment of picture quality. We saw a Blu-Ray disk played on a high-end HD tv (better than the ones we have at home), and were really blown away by the image. But we're satisfied with the picture quality we get now, and see no reason to invest so much money in new technology, especially in this economy.

BTW, I see you have several other blogs, but am having difficulty signing up from my Mac. They appear to have more audience participation, are they also updated regularly?

October 30, 2008 8:12 AM  
Blogger Doc said...

Hi Marcia,

My main blog is http://docblood.spaces.live.com and if you can stand (mostly bad) haiku, I write on www.fictionpress.com/~docblood. Almost everything I write appears on the Spaces' "Doc's Place", with the exception of some pieces of interest only to private practice mental health people. The address associated with my blogging activities is tabloodphd at gmail.com if you want to comment or question further. Thanks for commenting.

Peace, Doc

October 30, 2008 11:27 AM  
Blogger manda said...

I think Blu-Ray is the wave of the future. "Dark Knight" just sold over 1 million copies on Blue Ray; many people considered DVDs legitimate technology when the first DVD movie sold over a million.

Although the step from DVD to Blue-Ray isn't anywhere near the step from VHS to DVD, I think it's safe to say that BR is here to stay.

December 19, 2008 1:03 PM  
Blogger Doc said...

Hi Manda,

I agree both with the fantastic picture quality of Blu-ray and the likelihood that it will have some limited success. As I sit in the 'ol recliner chair, I can see three pieces of Sony electronics and there are more in other rooms. It was my brand of choice prior to the rootkit attacks. I believe what I am responding to in this article is Sony's "business model" and that upconverted HD DVD picture quality is "almost" as good, especially when the price of disks and player/recorders is entered into the equation. I suppose we'll see what happens fairly soon following the global financial meltdown. If people have the spare cash and want to spend it on this technology, it's OK with me. By the time I saved up enough for a good unit, however, flash technology will have taken over the market.

Peace, Doc

December 19, 2008 2:17 PM  

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